By Dr. Gloria Boma Harry
Politics is rarely about what politicians say; it is often about what their actions mean. That is why the latest position of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Governors’ Forum on the emerging “Rainbow Coalition” deserves serious attention. The governors have drawn a line in the sand: they will not support any political arrangement that strengthens President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid while simultaneously weakening APC candidates at other levels of the 2027 elections.
On the surface, this may appear to be an ordinary disagreement among politicians. It is much more than that. It exposes one of the central contradictions that could define Nigeria’s politics in 2027: Can politicians build a coalition across party lines to support one presidential candidate while remaining loyal to their individual parties in legislative and governorship elections? The answer from the APC governors appears to be a resounding no.
Their message is particularly significant because the political movement is being championed by Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory and a former governor of Rivers State who remains a powerful political force.
Wike insists that his objective is clear: to ensure Tinubu wins the 2027 presidential election. He has also argued that supporting the President should not prevent him from working with politicians from other parties.
That argument sounds politically convenient. But politics, like mathematics, has consequences.
If a coalition tells its supporters to vote for Tinubu for president but backs another party’s candidate for governor, senator or member of the House of Representatives, what happens to the APC? That is precisely the question troubling the APC governors.
You cannot strengthen Tinubu by weakening the APC
The APC governors’ position is understandable. A political party cannot reasonably expect its governors, legislators and grassroots structures to mobilise for a presidential candidate while simultaneously watching their own candidates lose elections to members of a coalition operating outside the party.
President Tinubu may be the APC’s presidential candidate, but his electoral strength will inevitably depend on the strength of the party machinery supporting him across the states.
The governors therefore appear to be saying something fundamental: if you want the APC to deliver the President, you cannot ask the APC to surrender the rest of the ballot. This is where the Rainbow Coalition faces its biggest political test.
Wike may successfully bring politicians from the PDP, APC, Labour Party, Action Alliance and other platforms under one umbrella. But bringing politicians together is one thing; persuading their supporters to vote according to a complicated political formula is another.
The Nigerian voter is not a political calculator who can simply be instructed to vote for Party A at one level and Party B at another because coalition leaders have reached an agreement. And even where voters are willing to do so, party structures may resist.
Wike’s strength is also his challenge
There is no doubt that Wike understands Nigerian politics. He has demonstrated an ability to build relationships beyond traditional party boundaries and has shown that political alliances can survive even when party loyalties change.
His support for Tinubu despite belonging to the PDP has already demonstrated that Nigerian politics does not always follow the neat boundaries drawn in party constitutions. But that is also where his present challenge lies.
Wike wants a coalition broad enough to guarantee Tinubu victory while retaining sufficient freedom to influence other electoral contests.
The APC governors, on the other hand, want Tinubu’s victory to reinforce the APC rather than create an alternative political structure around him.
These are not necessarily the same objectives. And that difference cannot be wished away.
The Rivers question
Nowhere may this tension be more visible than in Rivers State. The Rainbow Coalition has reportedly brought together politicians from the PDP, APC, Labour Party and Action Alliance. Yet Wike has acknowledged that the coalition has not decided who will contest the Rivers governorship election.
That admission is revealing. If the coalition’s principal objective is to support Tinubu, what happens when the same coalition must choose a governorship candidate against an APC candidate?
That is where political theory meets electoral reality. Will APC members support the coalition’s candidate? Will the APC governors accept such an arrangement? Will Wike’s supporters vote for the APC candidate if the coalition selects someone from another party?
These questions have no easy answers. And Rivers State may ultimately become one of the clearest battlegrounds for determining whether the Rainbow Coalition is genuinely a broad movement for Tinubu or the beginning of a wider political realignment.
The danger of divided loyalty
The APC governors have used the language of party loyalty, and that language should not be dismissed.
Political parties are built on structures, shared interests and collective ambition. Once members begin operating through parallel political structures, the authority of the party leadership can quickly become diluted.
A coalition that supports a party’s presidential candidate but campaigns against its candidates elsewhere could produce exactly that outcome. The APC therefore faces a delicate balancing act.
It must accommodate politicians who are willing to support Tinubu, even when they are not APC members, while protecting the interests of its own candidates and structures.
Wike, equally, must demonstrate that his coalition is not a Trojan horse designed to capture the presidency while dismantling the APC from within. That is the political suspicion the governors are now confronting.
2027 is already here
Perhaps the most important lesson from this unfolding drama is that the 2027 election has effectively begun.
The battles are no longer confined to party meetings. Political loyalties are being tested, alliances are being constructed and influence is being measured.
The Rainbow Coalition represents one vision of 2027: a broad alliance of politicians from different parties united principally around Tinubu.
The APC Governors’ Forum represents another: a disciplined party structure in which support for Tinubu must go hand in hand with support for APC candidates. Both positions cannot operate indefinitely without friction.
Eventually, Nigerians will want to know exactly what each coalition stands for, who its candidates are and, most importantly, what voters are being asked to do when they enter the polling booth.
Beyond personalities
The temptation will be to reduce this entire contest to Wike versus the APC governors. That would be a mistake.
The bigger question is whether Nigerian politics is moving towards a new era of coalition politics in which presidential candidates can attract support across party lines without destroying the parties that produced them.
If that is the future, Nigeria’s political parties will need to rethink their structures, alliances and electoral strategies. For now, however, the APC governors have made their position unmistakably clear.
They will support Tinubu, but they do not want that support to become a licence for weakening the APC. Wike, meanwhile, appears determined to build his rainbow.
The question is whether that rainbow can shine brightly enough to unite Nigeria’s competing political interests or whether it will eventually run into the hard wall of party loyalty. The 2027 contest is taking shape, and this may only be the beginning.
Dr. Gloria Boma Harry writes from Port Harcourt, Rivers State gloriab4real@gmail.com
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