As the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, a sobering new assessment warns that total military casualties on both sides could reach a staggering 2 million by the coming spring.
A report released on Tuesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals that Russia is currently enduring the highest number of troop fatalities recorded for any major power in any conflict since the Second World War. This grim milestone comes as the war evolves into a punishing “war of attrition,” marked by minimal territorial gains bought at an extraordinary human cost.
The CSIS findings suggest that between February 2022 and December 2025, the Russian Federation suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 troop deaths. In contrast, Ukraine, contending with a smaller population and military force, is estimated to have suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, with fatalities potentially reaching 140,000.
Despite Moscow’s claims of battlefield momentum, the report notes that Russian forces are advancing at a “glacial” pace. In their most prominent offensives, gains have averaged between 15 and 70 metres per day, a rate described by analysts as slower than almost any major offensive campaign in the last century.
“The data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,” the CSIS report stated. “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II.”
Both Moscow and Kyiv remain tight-lipped regarding precise loss figures, often amplifying the losses of the adversary while suppressing their own.
The Kremlin’s Stance: Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed the CSIS research on Wednesday, asserting it could not be considered “reliable information.” The Russian Ministry of Defence last issued a death toll in September 2022, claiming fewer than 6,000 fatalities.
Independent Verification: The independent Russian news site Mediazona, working with the BBC, has meticulously confirmed the names of over 160,000 killed Russian troops by scouring social media, government notices, and local news.
The Ukrainian Perspective: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in February 2025 that over 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed, though the CSIS estimates suggest the true figure is significantly higher.
The human cost continues to mount away from the front lines. On Wednesday, Russian strikes hit an apartment block on the outskirts of Kyiv, claiming the lives of a man and a woman.
Further attacks were reported in Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, and the Zaporizhzhia region, wounding at least nine individuals. Ukraine’s air force reported a massive overnight assault involving a ballistic missile and 146 strike drones, the majority of which were neutralised by air defences or electronic warfare.
Simultaneously, Russia claimed to have destroyed 75 Ukrainian drones over its southwestern regions and the annexed Crimean Peninsula. Reports indicate a Ukrainian strike on the Khokholskaya oil depot in the Voronezh region, sparking a significant fire.
As the 1,000-kilometre front line remains largely static, President Vladimir Putin appears in no rush to seek a settlement. With some 700,000 Russian troops currently deployed, the conflict shows every sign of continuing its bloody trajectory toward the 2-million-casualty mark as the winter frost begins to thaw.
